A Week in the life of a "Political Analyst"

Mr. Rajat's  view of Malawi politics is fundamentally cynical. A Globe and Mail report had , on the basis of interviews with Mr. Hajat,   presented Malawi electoral campaign as some kind of jamboree or circus  with people going to these rallies just for fun.  Mr. Rajat told an UPI correspondent:

"There's a lot of hype going on. You must remember that politics is the main game in town. We don't have the proliferation of cable TV and satellite TV. Only six percent of our population has access to electricity. So basically this is like a welcome relief from the humdrum drudgery of poverty that makes up daily life in Malawi

   

So why did these fun-starved Malawians spend hours queing  on a chilly election day?

Not to bothered by such mundane matters as  consistence,  Mr. Hajat observes in the same breath

  

"The issues are very simple; there's not much ideology involved. It's all about how is my future going to be secured, how will I get my fertilizer? How will I be able to feed my family, and how will this leadership look after me?"

  

So the  fun-starved Malawians had, after all,  some reasons for spending  hours listening to different speakers and queing for hours on election day. 

  

Mr. Rajat’s predictive power has proved unreliable. As late as April 15, Mr. Hajat thought MP-UDF electoral alliance stood  a great chance of winning the forthcoming elections.  He declared:

 

“This is a formidable alliance because it comprises two very seasoned campaigners”. The MCP cited this expert prediction to counter Afrobarometer’s projection that Bingu would win by 60 percent.

   

Two days before the elections Mr. Hajat, claiming there was really no difference between Bingu and Bakili told VOA stated  :

 

“I think the voting patterns in Malawi tend to be regionalistic, ethnocentric and the final analysis is not the hate speech and character assassination from the podium but really where one's loyalty lies, where one's tribal instinct lies, and where one's future lies.”

 

 As results began to come out Mr. Hajat switched gears and now had this  to say to VOA

 

“By and large with the results that have been both announced and the results that are being displayed, you can surmise that it looks like a tsunami victory for the incumbent, Dr. Bingu wa Mutharika. Basically it shows a huge preponderance of votes in his favour”.

 

More poignantly, he continued

 

“The trends that are emerging show that people are making a difference between the parliamentary candidates and the presidential candidates. The second aspect is that the regional, ethnic and tribal lines that used to influence votes are becoming blurred, and Malawians seem to be voting as a nation rather than as three regions cobbled haphazardly together. It shows that there is a synergy occurring”

 

Religion, region and ethnicity are not evoked here

  

Although he talked about Tsunami Mr. Hajat still seemed to believe DPP would not have the majority in parliament. According to VOA, "Hajat said President Mutharika will also win a majority of seats in parliament by making deals with parliamentarians from smaller political parties."

 

Why did  people vote for Bingu?  Mr. Hajat had a ready answer.   He told the journalist Mabvuto Banda. ""People have voted for wa Mutharika because of his economic performance and the improved food situation ...The other reason is because people are reluctant to vote for someone with a murky past that has not been resolved"

 

Note that there is no mention of religion or ethnicity here.

 

Two days after the election Mr. Rajat introduced us  to a new variable - religious animosity. You would have thought that Mr. Hajat would somehow first explain why a predominantly Christian country had twice voted for a Moslem as president and  what had happened since. Not to be bothered by such matters as logic Mr. Hajat proceeds to give figures. He tells us that 300 Moslems ran for office. (This is the first time some of us hear about  this figure suggesting it really didn’t matter for Malawians.)  Only 20 won. Now, 1100 Malawians run and only 193 got seats.  So 30 percent of the candidates were Muslims and by his logic anything less than 30 percent votes for Moslems shows antipathy towards Moslem. Imagine if 200 Northerners run and only 30 won, would this be evidence of anti-North bias?  

 

Mr. Hajat tells anyone who will listen that he is self-educated. Well, it shows, doesn’t it?